000
ABNT20 KNHC 061132
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area over the southwestern Bay of Campeche has changed little in
organization overnight.  Although upper-level winds are expected to
remain unfavorable for significant development, an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this
system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance could produce heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain