000
ABNT20 KNHC 021150
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.  SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH