000
ABNT20 KNHC 010553
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER. 
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA TODAY. THESE RAINS WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART