000
ABNT20 KNHC 301136
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH