000
ABNT20 KNHC 282331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI