000 ABNT20 KNHC 191124 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. && FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO $$ FORECASTER BROWN