000
ABNT20 KNHC 172344
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHETUMAL MEXICO IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE