000
ABNT20 KNHC 111138
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE HUMBERTO...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED
JUST WEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY
AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY WHEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.     

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN