000
ABNT20 KNHC 110542
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BELIZE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY.  SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE