000
ABNT20 KNHC 100512
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST 
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE THURSDAY WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI