000
ABNT20 KNHC 080157
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISCUSSION OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD AND POORLY
DEFINED...AND DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

UPDATED...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE NEEDED. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY MONDAY REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. 

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN