000
ABNT20 KNHC 051148
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. 
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.  DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY
AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2...AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE