000
ABNT20 KNHC 041759
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...
SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM STILL LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE