000
ABNT20 KNHC 020538
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI