000
ABNT20 KNHC 010526
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND ON MONDAY.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI