000
ABNT20 KNHC 311726
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS
DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED
TODAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA