000
ABNT20 KNHC 241135
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNLIKELY BEFORE THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST BY
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. 

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...
AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN