000
ABNT20 KNHC 142331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND BELIZE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTER THAT...
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND IT HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART