000
ABNT20 KNHC 021741
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IS MAINLY
LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AFTER THAT...DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA