000
ABNT20 KNHC 221742
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE LATER IN THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART