000
ABNT20 KNHC 221746
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN...LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 325 MILES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD  
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH