000
ABNT20 KNHC 221139
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG