000
ABNT20 KNHC 211132
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.  HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG