000
ABNT20 KNHC 210535
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.  HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN