000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR.  HOWEVER... 
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.  HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN