000
ABNT20 KNHC 201133
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT
1000 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA