000
ABNT20 KNHC 192339
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART