000
ABNT20 KNHC 121744
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IN RAINBANDS...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IF THIS OCCURS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN