000
ABNT20 KNHC 121142
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PATTY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON PATTY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE