000
ABNT20 KNHC 120545
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

DATA FROM THE BARBADOS WEATHER SERVICE RADAR...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AND SATELLITES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NOW LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT LUCIA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN
THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PATTY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON PATTY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN