000
ABNT20 KNHC 112333
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

DATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM PATTY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON PATTY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART