000
ABNT20 KNHC 110532
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SQUALLS WELL TO THE NORTH OF
CIRCULATION CENTER. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND...IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AND BRIEFLY PERSIST BEFORE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LOW...OR THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD
FRONT...BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER WMO
HEADER FZNT02 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART