000
ABNT20 KNHC 102350
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING...AND REPORTS FROM BUOYS WELL NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER INDICATE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART