000
ABNT20 KNHC 101732
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGIANALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE LOW MERGES
WITH A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI