000
ABNT20 KNHC 092338
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.  

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD 
AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN