000
ABNT20 KNHC 091133
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN