000
ABNT20 KNHC 090551
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND.  UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE BAHAMAS AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG