000
ABNT20 KNHC 082331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NORTHWARD-MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN