000
ABNT20 KNHC 071144
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART