000
ABNT20 KNHC 170542
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. 
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT
250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN