000
ABNT20 KNHC 162336
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE 
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN