000
ABNT20 KNHC 051747
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA... AND ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1125
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 
5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART