000
ABNT20 KNHC 212345
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF
GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING NEAR A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BERG