000
ABNT20 KNHC 211746
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE
CENTER OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION HAS MOVED CLOSER TO LAND
TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY