000
ABNT20 KNHC 211147
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN