000
ABNT20 KNHC 210545
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES 
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED 
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE COULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM SINCE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD SOON BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THOSE ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 

SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART