000
ABNT20 KNHC 192340
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM STAYS
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE