000
ABNT20 KNHC 171500
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1100
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

UPDATED...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT YET BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
ORGANIZED TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FORMATION...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES LAND.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
OR WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO IF ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED. 

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN