000
ABNT20 KNHC 171134
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1195
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM REACHES LAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PART OF THE COAST TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN