000
ABNT20 KNHC 151134
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 
715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING  A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY...AND
TURNS NORTHEASTWARD  BY THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART